After dire warnings that the future of the Fraser River sockeye salmon was under threat, 34 million returned to spawn this year, making this the biggest run for over a century, according to the BBC “Newsnight” TV program.
The previous year saw a paltry 1 million sockeye make the journey upstream, a collapse from an expected 10 million in just a few years, prompting a government investigation into the collapsed stock. Also, the commercial fishery of the Fraser River sockeye has been closed for three years.
This year, however, locals have been left delighted and dumbfounded with the exceptionally strong breeding cohort. The government investigation will now look into the huge disparity between the two years and scientists will try to improve their models so that future runs can be better predicted.
The problem with creating accurate annual stock assessments was addressed by Professor Daniel Pauly of the University of British Columbia, interviewed in the program:
“I think science is very good at predicting long-term trends over larger areas and it’s not good at predicting details over shorter time periods in limited areas”, he said.
Earlier this year, before reports of the strong recovery were published, a heated controversy evolved around the decision by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) to finalise certification of the Fraser River sockeye salmon. That process had been described by environmentalists as “corporate eco-fraud”.
On another note, local aquaculturists have released disease records for the past five years in order to shed some light on whether there is a direct correlation between fish farming and the long-term decline of the Fraser river sockeye salmon.
Industrial salmon farms constructed next to the river have been blamed for the spread of disease to the wild population, e.g. through lice.