Yesterday, the European Commission published its proposals for EU fishing opportunities in 2008. The proposal provides grim reading for sector representatives and reflects the general state of EU fish stocks, with around 80 per cent being overfished.
EU fish stocks in a poor state
EU fish stocks are among the most poorly managed in the world, with 4 out of 5 outside safe biological limits and complete closures of the fishery advised for around 13 stocks every year (excluding sharks, rays and skates). According to the Commissionโs policy statement for 2008 released earlier this year (COM(2007)295), the number of stocks at risk appear neither to be decreasing nor increasing. Only 3 stocks are managed in line with the target for maximum sustainable yields (MSY) agreed in by the UN World Summit in Johannesburg in 2002.
For 2008, the advice from the International Council for Exploration of the Seas (ICES) as well as the Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF) underlines the sad state of EU fish resources. A number of key stocks, including most cod stocks, are still fished at levels corresponding to a very high risk of reproduction failure โ ie the stock may be unable to replenish under the current fishing pressure and may get into a downward spiral.
Reductions dominate for 2008
The Commission proposal is dominated by figures in the red. In many cases, the Commission is proposing cuts around 15 per cent, but surprisingly often it goes further and suggests cuts of 25 per cent or even more. There are a few exceptions to this, rather surprisingly for North Sea cod, and for some major fisheries the quotas are suggested to remain the same.
Regarding whitefish, most of the Atlantic cod stocks covered by the recovery plan has not recovered, but for the main stock in the North Sea improvements are now seen. Bycatch levels in other fisheries remain a problem, but with increased efforts to bring bycatch down an increase in quota can be expected after the 11 per cent increase agreed with Norway. Northern hake is continuing to do well, and Southern hake is also
responding to the recovery efforts. TACs will increase for next year. Haddock in the North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat is doing well too, under the precautionary management plan agreed with Norway in 1999. Saithe stocks are also doing very well.
For flatfish things are looking less bright, despite several agreed long-term management plans. The main stock of plaice in the North Sea is at risk for reduced reproductive capacity but is judged to be harvested sustainably. A TAC at 49,000 tonnes was agreed with Norway last week; a modest reduction in line with the multi-annual management plan adopted in June. For most of the other plaice stocks, reductions of around 15 per cent are suggested. High mortality in North Sea sole has led to proposals to reduce quotas with 15 per cent.
Severe cuts are proposed for many of the pelagic fisheries. Recruitment is poor for the herring stocks and cuts of up to 25 per cent are listed for EU stocks, and a 41 per cent reduction in the North Sea in agreement with Norway. The blue whiting stock continues to deteriorate and a reduction of 32 per cent has been agreed with Norway and the Faroe Islands. Norway pout is showing signs of improvement and a TAC of 50,000 tonnes is suggested. The fishery for anchovy in the Bay of Biscay will remain closed but will be revisited when new data become available in the spring. Sandeel will also be subject to in-year management, awaiting the results of exploratory fishing in the spring. A 15 per cent increase in the TAC for sprat in the North Sea was agreed with Norway last week.
In-year management systems are now used for many short lived species, such as sandeel, Norway pout, North Sea sprat and Biscay anchovy. It means that the fishing opportunities proposed now may be revised during next year in accordance with new scientific advice.
This year, there is no overall assessment of deepsea stocks, which are managed on a biannual basis, though quotas for a number of them are adjusted downwards to implement agreements under NEAFC as well as reflect new scientific information from ICES. All fishing, retaining onboard, transshipment or landing of white shark and basking shark is prohibited, in line with the decision to CITES-list them a couple of years ago.
Overall, if the proposal is implemented it will result in reduced fishing opportunities for the EU fleet. But if TACs are reduced in the short-term, it is more likely that we will see stocks recover and this will result in increased catches in the future. If the proposal is watered down, however, we may see several stocks declining even further.
Improvements or business as usual?
Commonly, what happens at the end of each year is that the scientific advisory body, ICES releases its advice on the majority of the fish stocks in October. After having consulted STECF, the European Commission then publishes its proposal a few weeks later, generally proposing fishing opportunities above the levels suggested by ICES. The Council then agrees on fishing opportunities for next year in late December. As a rule, this agreement will set quotas substantially higher than the Commissionโs proposal. In fact, the Commissionโs summary in the policy statement for 2008 shows that the average deviation from the catch advised by ICES in the past five years has been over 47 %.
In addition to this process, catches are often higher than the allowed levels, mainly due to ineffective control and enforcement and a lack of respect for the fishing rules. For many EU fisheries, the illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) catches are estimated to at least 30 per cent above the quota and in some cases as much as 75 per cent. A continued failure to control catches and limit the fishing effort will lead to further decline in the resources.
In 2007, as part of the implementation of the 2002 reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and the preparation of more long-term management arrangements, the Commission presented a policy statement outlining some principles for the setting of fishing opportunities that were generally in line with conditions in already agreed multi-annual management plans. These basic principles still apply. In short, to provide the sector with some stability year on year, TACs and effort should not be reduced (nor increased) by more than 15 per cent. If there are strong indications that more stringent measures are needed, this principle will be abandoned and a greater cut suggested, taking into consideration the effects of mixed fisheries. For stocks for which no scientific advice is provided, the precautionary approach should be applied, and when TACs are set substantially above the real catches gradual adjustments by 15 per cent will be made until the TAC matches the catch level.
The Commission clearly states in its Communication for 2008, that ultimately its proposal must comply with the principles of the Common Fisheries Policy and should lead to a reduction of the number of stocks outside precautionary limits. It should be remembered that the Regulation on annual fishing opportunities is the main instrument of the CFP conservation policy.
The current effort management system used in the EU based on days at sea has been judged to be largely inefficient, partially because reductions in effort have not been sufficient to reflect the needs. The Commission has been working on an alternative system based on a ceiling for KW days and this has been discussed with the Member States on several occasions, as well as with the Committee for Fisheries and Aquaculture. However, more in-depth discussions are needed and the system is unlikely to be implemented before 2009.