American scientists have developed a model that may be used to forecast the impact of climate change on different fish stocks: good for some, bad for others.
The study, performed by scientists from NOAA, the federal body that administers fisheries, and published by the Ecological Society of America, was made on the Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus), a marine fish of the eastern US supporting a €8 million commercial fishery annually. Previous studies have shown a strong link between croaker abundance and winter temperatures.
Accordingly, the researchers based their population model for the species on the hypothesis that recruitment, or survival of juveniles to adulthood, is determined by winter water temperature.
For various temperature and fish population scenarios through 2100 they found:
- At current fishing levels, the spawning population of Atlantic croaker will increase between 60 and 100 percent.
- The center of the Atlantic croaker population will shift 30 to 65 miles north.
“Some fish populations will increase and others decrease as a result of climate change,” said lead author Jon Hare of the Northeast Fisheries Science Centre (NEFSC) laboratory in Narragansett, R.I.
“Our results demonstrate that climate effects on fisheries must be identified and understood, included in the scientific advice to managers, and factored into fishery management plans if sustainable exploitation is to be achieved.”
Ha added that the next step would be to develop forecast models that use shorter time-frames than the 50-100 year perspective in his current report.
“Fishery management does not operate on these long time scales, and shorter-term forecasts are required,” Hare said.
“In the future, a range of climate forecasts that include both the effects of fishing and climate on fish populations over time intervals of 5 to 20 years, 20 to 50 years and 50 to 100 years could be provided. These kinds of coupled models will help provide the best scientific advice for managing fisheries under changing climate conditions in the future.”