ICES revises advice for western Baltic herring after calculation error – up from -36 to -11 percent. The stock, however, is at an all time low and the revision of the advice will not result in any changes in the Commission proposal.
ICES was forced to admit changes in its advice for fishing limits in 2011 under its MSY transition scheme a couple of weeks ago, after discovering errors in the calculations in one of the models used. For Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivision 22–24), a stock straddling into the eastern North Sea (division IIIa), the re-calculation meant a hike from 14,500 tonnes to 20,200 tonnes in the fishing possibilities for 2011. The revision brings a change in the advice for subdivision 22–24 under the MSY transition scheme: from -36% to -11%.
However, the Western Baltic herring stock has continued to decline since 2006 and the biomass is currently at its lowest observed level, while fishing mortality is well above the range that would lead to high long-term yields according to ICES. Even in its revised advice, ICES states that Spawning Stock Biomass for Western Baltic herring has reached an all time low in 2010 and that the population clearly is outside safe biological limits.
In the advice from the Scentific, Technical and Economic Committee on Fisheries (STECF) – which predates the ICES revision – it is noted that according to the Consultation on fishing opportunities for 2011 (COM(2010)241) this stock should be classified as category 3 “Stock outside of safe biological limits”. This would result in 30% reduction of the TAC to 15,884 tonnes
The Commission has chosen to follow its policy paper, proposing a reduction of 30% (as set out for stocks in category 3), from 22,692 to 15,884 tonnes. Because of the status of the stock, we have been told that the Commission proposal will not be revised. However, the scope for political discussion of this quota during the upcoming Fisheries Council meeting will have changed.
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In light of the revised ICES advice, FISH and SAR have also revised the annex on Baltic Sea quotas that was sent to fisheries ministers, other decision-makers and a wider stakeholder group on 1 October. Linked below, you will find the revised version.