From March 2-6, the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES), met in Rostock, Germany to evaluate data and models for the Baltic cod stocks. The results of this meeting will contribute to the final ICES advice for Baltic Cod, due on May 29.
The agenda included discussions and presentation on a broad range of topics including fishery specific data, Baltic ecology, multispecies interactions, cod population assessment models, and assorted technical and scientific evaluations related to the Baltic cod fisheries.
Listening to scientists from the Baltic states, Canada, and the United States collaborate throughout the week provided a fascinating window to the Baltic ecosystem. Articulated concerns over data quality, models, and ecosystem processes developed a cautious narrative by the end of the week. In general, whilst there has been a strong inflow of North Sea water in the last few months, cod are in a particularly stressed state. They are smaller and thinner than previously observed, despite strong recruitment. Some Baltic Member States still have to submit their 2014 fishery landings and discard data, further contributing to challenges surrounding a reliable estimate for the Eastern Baltic Cod stock. Because of the evolving Baltic ecosystem and some conflicting data, ICES could not provide F ranges at this meeting. Those will have to wait until a following meeting of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group in mid-April.
Fisheries stock assessment is, perhaps above all else, a study in uncertainty. In a fluctuating ecosystem like the Baltic, and with sometimes piecemeal data coming in from Member States, this uncertainty is magnified. However we are confident that ICES scientists are doing their absolute best for the Baltic.